July 23, 2010

Markets stayed within wide pivots on low volume. Euro stress tests and GE raising its dividend are the purported catalysts for the move up. Economic releases were horrible – but ignored.

Short-term: 1 green, 3 yellow – tending yellow/green
Intermediate-term: 3 green, 1 red – no tendency
Stock targets: 21% swimming, 29% neutral, 50% sinking

Unlike the June 18 whipsaw, today marks the second day intermediate-term indicators are positive and the short-term indicators don’t indicate a whipsaw this time. The market still has resistance to get through. The market is definitely getting a broader advance from the bottom up this time and improving pretty significantly by the day. Whether or not the indexes make it through resistance or just chop around, the odds now favor either an advance by most stocks or a divergence where some stocks continue to advance and others flounder. In particular, the lack of volume moving the market indicates that sellers are either done, exhausted, or on vacation until Labor Day.


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