Weekly Currency

I use similar technical indicators for currency ETF’s as I do for other “stocks”. With one exception — the US$. That will always have “scores” of 0. Gotta use something as the baseline. Generally, the higher the score the better – except for beta. Beta is an indicator of how highly correlated an asset is with the US stock market (not other currencies). If beta is negative, that means it tends to move opposite the stock market and thus can be seen as a hedge against whatever “moves” the stock market. A negative beta number thus implies a “safe haven”. A beta of 1 equals the US stock market. Alpha is a best guess of the longer-term trendline of the currency over the last year assuming nothing else in the world changes in price. My timeframe for “strong/weak” is the next few weeks/months — as I see it this week.

Currency ETF Overall Score ST Overbought/sold Alpha Beta Strong/Weak
AUS $ FXA 81 OK 1% .62 Strong
Pound FXB 82 Overbought -4% .23 Strong on Pullback
CAN $ FXC 54 OK 0% .47 Weak
Euro FXE 82 Bit Overbought -5% .25 Strong
Swiss Franc FXF 82 OK 0% .17 Strong
Yen FXY 82 OK 5% -.26 Strong
Gold GLD/IAU -40 OK 8% .24 Weak
US $ None 0 NA 0 0 Weak

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