International Equity Valuations

Not really interested in any longs right now but did want to see whether any markets have declined to actual “good value” levels. Countries are grouped with similar “risk” countries

True blue-chip countries — None.

AA rank countries:

Country P/S P/B P/CF ROE % Financials
Switzerland 1.5 2.18 10.72 15.1 18.8%
Sweden 1.19 1.33 10.97 14.6 27.9%
Finland .66 1.39 7.9 11.7 13.8%
Norway 1.27 1.63 9.38 11.4 13.3%
Canada 2.01 1.06 12.05 5.2 27.3%

A rank countries

Country P/S P/B P/CF ROE % Financials
Japan .56 .93 3.79 5.3 17.8%
Germany .63 1.34 6.82 12.3 15.4%
France .78 1.28 6.34 10.2 14.9%
Denmark 1.25 1.66 7.02 11.4 14.7%
Netherlands .83 1.33 10.71 11.3 17.9%
Austria .92 1.07 4.04 6.5 39.6%
Singapore 1.92 1.66 -22.2 12.8 46.8%
Hong Kong 2.36 1.52 386.3 13.9 47.0%
Taiwan .89 1.85 8.37 11.9 16.7%
Chile 1.91 2.5 19.94 14.7 18.6%
US 1.20 1.89 6.78 27.5 14.5%

Near Junk countries

Country P/S P/B P/CF ROE % Financials
UK 1.13 1.8 13.21 12.0 18.0%
Belgium .97 1.2 3.7 8.6 23.8%
Spain 1.37 1.26 3.09 14.9 37.8%
Italy .41 .55 9.31 5.44 33.2%
Australia 1.9 1.78 13.68 11.3 37.9%
New Zealand 1.24 1.55 8.2 6.6 12.7%
S Korea .47 1.21 6.27 12.9 14.5%
Czech Rep 2.15 1.95 6.8 18.3 20.0%
Israel 1.58 1.83 8.5 14.3 19.2%
Poland 1.15 1.52 15.35 11.1 37.8%
S Africa 1.36 2.00 11.65 12.5 25.3%
Malaysia 2.24 2.17 46.2 12.5 24.9%
Brazil 1.09 .95 22.04 15.2 24.4%
Mexico 1.82 2.63 10.43 13.9 8.5%

Included the % financials because that’s the sector of every economy that is most tied together and correlated with other countries. There’s some value already in some countries – but still a lot of potential downside in most. Given the total debt level in many of these countries, it’s hard to make a case that any returns will flow thru all that debt and to equity holders. What is most interesting is the fraud in the US re “earnings” – via the unsustainable outlier ROE. The US is now equivalent to – maybe worse than – China or Russia or other insider kleptocracies.

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